Northern Guyana usually transitions into the short-wet season during the last week of November which last until the end of January. The southern part of Guyana remains dry until April in the coming year.
Surface analysis shows that the Inter – Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is currently oscillating north of the equator between 5N and 13N.
The consensus among the dynamic and statistical El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models is for moderate El Niño conditions to persist from November through the first quarter of 2019. During El Niño conditions the average sea surface temperature across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is above the climatological average which typically leads to lower rainfall amounts and drier conditions in Guyana. Recent observations show above average sea surface temperature across the Equatorial Pacific and the Equatorial Atlantic Oceans.
The output from the Seasonal Climate Outlook model for November 2018 to January 2019 suggests the total rainfall amount throughout the short-wet season will be less than the climatological average. That is, during November to January northern Guyana would usually experience 26 – 47 rain days, of these up to 4 events are very wet (with potential for flooding) and 2 events can lead to extreme flooding. However, the Seasonal Climate Outlook model suggests these numbers will be less in the upcoming wet season; however, there are still chances of flooding along the coast and other areas in northern Guyana. As a result, relevant stakeholders along the coast should take necessary precautionary measures, since water levels will rise, and soil saturation levels are expected to be high. In addition, sluice and pump operators should pay attention to daily weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Watch Centre. Temperatures forecast suggests warmer than usual day-time and night-time temperatures during the season. A gradual build-up of heat can also be expected towards the end of the season.
The Hydrometeorological Service will provide updates to its seasonal forecast as new information becomes available. For short term forecasts and weather analyses, stakeholders are advised to follow the Daily Weather Brief, Outlooks and Advisories produced by the National Weather Watch Centre or visit www.hydromet.gov.gy. The forecast desk can be reached at 261-2284/261-2216.